NAYEF ROAD
Galileo x Rose Bonheur (Danehill Dancer)
Comments
After extensive analysis of the UK and European season to date, Nayef Road is the horse from this jurisdiction that best fits the profile of being successful as a stayer in Australia.
He has had an extremely impressive 4yo season, competing with distinction at the highest level of the staying ranks in Britain.
Good enough to win twice as a 2yo over 1400m, his 3yo season was one in which he was pitched at a high level and his headline performance came at Goodwood when taking out the Group 3 Gordon Stakes. He was good enough to run a close up third in a very strong St Leger of that year.
He has progressed to another level at 4, beginning with a Group 3 victory and following that on with two very tough seconds to the superstar stayer Stradivarius.
His run yesterday (Friday 21 August) at York in the Lonsdale Cup, further enhanced his consistency. He slipped out of the gates and was never happy in the run. He was still game enough to finish third ahead of horses which include those on a Melbourne Cup path. After four tough runs, the impression now is that he would enjoy a small break, which would tie in nicely if he was to transit to the Southern Hemisphere.
We believe that he is ideally suited to Australian conditions for the following reasons:
He is a runner that likes to lead or be near the speed, thus taking luck out of the picture. He has been leading at very strong tempos typical of UK racing and the slower nature of Australian staying events would improve him even further. The hallmark of Galileo stayers is that they possess a turn of foot combined with high class stamina.
He performs best on firm surfaces consistent with Australia, this has been something that has found out European stayers of the past who typically enjoy the cut out of the ground.
He can be somewhat compared to Mirage Dancer, who profiled up in a similar fashion when he was sent to Australia. We believe he is a markedly better proposition, given he is a year younger and has shown more ‘X-factor’.
He can too be compared with 2018 Melbourne Cup runner-up Marmelo, in that they are both hardy runners full of stamina. Unlike Marmelo, he posseses more natural ability having competed against better opposition and he likes firmer tracks.
You can never read the mind of the handicapper, but history would suggest he would be given a mark of around 56.5kg in the Melbourne Cup. This would make him less susceptible to a light-weight 3yo danger.
There is a lot of uncertainty from trainers in this part of the world about bringing horses down. The St Leger is still to come, but a 3yo who profiles up like previous cup winners Rekindling & Cross Counter has not yet been seen. The compacted nature of the season has meant that these 3yo’s are unable to have the same amount of lead-in runs as in a typical year.
A further positive is the fact he has been trained by Mark Johnston, well-renowned for producing supremely fit horses who are hard to topple.
He is a colt with a superb pedigree, who would have strong credentials at stud.
This is a very smart stayer, who we believe would be a tailor-made prospect for the Melbourne spring.
Pedigree and Background
Nayef Road is a 4yo Chestnut Colt in training with Mark Johnston in the United Kingdom.
He was purchased from Book 1 of the Tattersalls 2017 October Yearling Sale for 100,000gns (approx AU$191,000) and has collected £421,126 (approx AU$769,663) in prize money.
By Galileo out of a Danehill Dancer mare, this is an increasingly successful cross at the elite level.
This nick has provided 111 named foals, with 90 runners, 67 of which are individual winners. 77% wnrs/rnrs ratio (82% with colts). 23 of these horses are Group or Listed winners, making a 25% G&LWnr/rnrs ratio.
Group 1 winners from this cross are:
Minding (2013, f) - 8 x G1’s
Circus Maximus (2016, c) - 3 x G1’s
Alice Springs (2013, f) - 3 x G1’s
Sovereign (2016, c) - 2 x G1’s
The Gurkha (2013, c) - 2 x G1’s
Serpentine (2017, c) - 1 x G1 (2020 English Derby)
His Dam Rose Bonheur was a four-time winning 3yo, including two Listed wins over 1200m and 1400m respectively. She was also placed in two Group 3 races. She has produced two winners from two runners including Middle East (Frankel) who twice won over a mile in France.
2nd Dam Red Feather won three times as a 2yo & 3yo, including a Group 3 over a mile. She was placed in a Group 1 and two Group 3’s.
Race Record
Form: 2yo-291173 3yo-165321537 4yo-1223
Prizemoney: £421,126 (approx AU$769,663)
4yo Season
21st August 2020 - York -Weatherby’s Hamilton Lonsdale Cup Stakes - Group 2 - 3200m- 3rd of 7 - beaten 1.5 lengths by Enbihaar
Slipped leaving gates to be last, worked to 3rd in the run using petrol in doing so, never looked happy in strong wind & rain, lead at 600m, kicked at 400m, stayed on eventually swamped by winner.
Beaten by:
Enbihaar - highly rated, fifth Group 2 win, 1.5kgs better off at weights and a very impressive horse. Official rating 113.
Beat:
Dashing Willoughby - Group 3 winner at previous start, previous Group 2 winner, highly thought of by Andrew Balding stable, is on a definite Melbourne Cup path, performed to its best whereas Nayef Road had valid excuses - on that basis is very encouraging.
Eagles By Day - Another highly thought of stayer on Melbourne Cup path, Group 3 winner, performed at its level with no excuse.
28 July 2020 - Goodwood - Goodwood Cup Stakes - Group 1 - 3200m - 2nd of 7 - beaten 1 length by Stradavarius
Set strong pace , entitled to fade, stayed on strongly to the line, beaten in shadow of winning post by champion. Impressive.
Strong field, Irish Derby winner well of at weights (see below)
Beaten by:
Stradavarius - record speaks for itself, not a horse in training anywhere that could match him over 2 miles +
Beat:
Santiago - 3yo, highly rated winner of Irish Derby at previous start. 7kg better off at weights. Couldn’t go past him.
18 June 2020 - Ascot - Ascot Gold Cup - Group 1 - 4000m - 2nd of 8 - beaten 10 lengths by Stradavarius (8 lengths back to third)
Led, hassled by eventual tailed off last placed horse, hard run over marathon conditions in the wet, entitled to fade, stayed on stoutly, beaten by 10 lengths however there was 8 lengths back to 3rd with no one gaining. Tough performance.
Strong field, tough conditions over 4000m
Beaten by:
Stradavarius - as above, in another class to anything in the division in modern era
Beat:
Cross Counter - 2018 Melbourne Cup winner
Prince of Arran - Strong Australian performer (2 x Melbourne Cup placegetter, winner Lexus Stakes & Geelong Cup, 2nd Herbert Power, 3rd Caulfield Cup)
Techician - Highly rated 4yo - Group 1, 2 & 3 winner
6 June 2020 - Newcastle AW - Sagaro Stakes - Group 3 - 3300m - 1st of 11 - won by 0.75 lengths
Sat outside leader, led easily at 400m, stayed on strongly to win comfortably.
Beat:
Mildenberger - winner of 6 from 16. Multiple group placegetter to the likes of Roaring Lion, Stradavarius & Expert Eye.
Prince of Arran - as above
Rainbow Dreamer - winner of 9 from 29, including 4 in a row in previous 4 starts
Alright Sunshine - winner of 7 from 13
Kings Advice - winner of 9 races in 2019 season (winning most horse of that season)
3yo Season
5 October 2019 - Longchamp (FR) - Group 2 - 3000m - 7th of 10 - beaten 12 lengths by Techician
Not comfortable in wet ground and at end of long 3yo campaign
14 September 2019 -Doncaster - St Leger - Group 1 - 2500m - 3rd of 8 - beaten 2.5 lengths by Logician
Sat handy in second division behind runaway leader, improved to be prominent 400m out, continued to be prominent 200m out and stayed on nicely to be beaten a nose into second
St Leger always a very strong form indicator and perhaps the most highly rated staying event for 3yo’s in world
Beaten by:
Logician - yet to be seen in 2020, hugely rated, winner of 5 from 5. Outstanding horse
Sir Ron Priestley - top line galloper, 5 time winner at distances from 2300m - 2800m, including a Group 3 victory with £333,409 in prizemoney.
Beat:
Sir Dragonet - recently sold to Australia for $3million
Technician- as above went on to win French Group 2
Dashing Willoughby - as above
21 August 2019 -York - Great Voltigeur Stakes - Group 2 - 2400m - 5th of 5 - beaten 13 lengths by Logician
Not many excuses, 2nd time well beaten at York, perhaps not his track. Was a very strong field, but well below par
1 August 2019 -Goodwood - Gordon Stakes - Group 3 - 2400m - 1st of 9 - won by neck
Sat off leaders, came into contest 400m out, went toe-to-toe with erractic runner-up, fought on very strongly to the line
Historically a very strong race - won by the likes of Sixties Icon, Conduit, Harbinger, Noble Mission, Highland Reel, Ulysees, Crystal Ocean.
Beat:
Constantinople - previous Group 3 winner, went on to run second to Logician, 4th in Caulfield Cup, now trained in Australia
Spanish Mission - had beaten Nayef Road in Group 3 previous, went on to win the start after, now high up in staying ranks and aim is now Melbourne Cup after winning on 20th August
11 July 2019 -Newmarket - Bahrain Trophy Stakes - Group 3 - 2600m - 2nd of 9 - beaten 4 lengths by Spanish Mission
Exposed out in front early, beaten by something he would beat next time, clear gap to third
19 June 2019 -Ascot - Queens Vase - Group 2 - 2800m - 3rd of 13 - beaten 1 length by Dashing Willoughby
Good effort, first of his really typical staying performances. Progressive, would come to turn tables on first two in races to come
1 June 2019 -Epsom- Private Bank Handicap -Hcp - 2000m - 5th of 9 - beaten 6 lengths by Le Don De Vie
Raced keen, unsuited by slow pace, a race that would prove to throw up horses that are now all rated over 100
16 May 2019 -York - Dante Stakes - Group 2 - 2100m - 6th of 8 - beaten 7.25 lengths by Telecaster
Outpaced, never in it, first of two failures at York Derby trial, very strong field - Telecaster, Too Darn Hot & Japan
5 May 2019 -Newmarket - Qatar Handicap - 3yo Hcp- 2000m - 1st of 5 - won by 5.5 lengths
Easy victory, confirmed he was well above handicapping class
2yo Season
24 October 2018 -Newmarket - 2yo Handicap- 2000m - 3rd of 9 - beaten by 1.25 lengths
21 September 2018 -Newbury - 2yo Handicap- 1600m - 7th of 7- beaten by 25 lengths
25 August 2018 -Newmarket - 2yo Handicap- 1400m - 1st of 4 - won by 3.25 lengths
10 August 2018 -Haydock- 2yo Maiden - 1400m - 1st of 7 - won by 2.5 lengths
13 July 2018 -Newmarket - 2yo Maiden - 1400m - 9th of 12 - beaten by 13.5 lengths
28June 2018 -Leicester- 2yo Maiden - 1400m - 2nd of 4 - beaten by 1.25 lengths